“Russia is not in a position now to irritate Azerbaijan too much” - Mediamax.am

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“Russia is not in a position now to irritate Azerbaijan too much”


Photo: REUTERS


Yerevan /Mediamax/. Russia and Eurasia Program expert at Chatham House (British Royal Institute of International Affairs) Laurence Broers sees parallels between the Russian discourse about Ukraine as a fake nation, and the Azerbaijani discourse about Armenia.

“Azerbaijan has been promoting for some time the narrative that the Republic of Armenia is located on ancient Azerbaijani land, and this trend is accelerating. Just recently, Aliyev announced the opening of a research institute for Western Azerbaijan, and when he says Western Azerbaijan, he means the Republic of Armenia. We can see parallels between the Russian discourse about Ukraine as an artificial, fake nation, and the Azerbaijani discourse about Armenia. This elevates the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict to an existential level,” Broers said in interview with Spiegel.

 

Referring to the situation in the Lachin Corridor, the expert said that “Baku is trying to show that the Russians are unable to fulfill their mandate and are basically framing the peacekeepers as an occupying force that is denying Azerbaijan access to Nagorno-Karabakh.”

 

“Russia’s standing has been greatly diminished by the Ukraine war. That has given Azerbaijan an opportunity to challenge the Russian peace. Ultimately, regime security is the highest value in Azerbaijan, and Aliyev’s strategy depends on what is best for the security of his regime. Two years on from the November ceasefire, we see that the primary benefits for Azerbaijan to compensate for the Russian deployment of peacekeepers – namely the transit route across Armenia – has not taken place. This may result in Baku feeling that it needs to scale up the pressure on Armenia,” Broers said.

 

“Russia needs Azerbaijan at the moment, partly because of its relations with Turkey, but also because of its new need for north-south links, relations with Iran, access to the Gulf, to India and so on. Russia is simply not in a position right now to irritate Azerbaijan too much, and Azerbaijan knows that,” the British expert noted.

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