Yerevan /Mediamax/. The second president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, spoke during news conference today about the problems of Artsakh and Armenia, security issues, possible consolidation and relations with Iran.
Artsakh’s issue is missing
The Artsakh issue does not exist in the negotiation process, this process is about the normalization of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
However, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was over the Artsakh issue. “Republic of Artsakh” and “self-determination” wording has completely disappeared from the vocabulary of Armenian officials, which means that we have a serious problem. If this continues, the future negotiation process will be in Baku-Stepanakert and to some extent Moscow format.--0--
Dependence on Baku increased
Dependence on Baku increased during this period. The fact that a gas pipeline was not built along with the new road, electric poles were not moved and the communication cable remained on the old road means that Azerbaijan can create a desperate situation for the people of Artsakh whenever it wants, and this will be another explanation for the authorities of Artsakh why it is necessary to cooperate with the authorities of Baku.
We are in a deep security crisis, when the government is unable to protect the territorial integrity of Armenia. The latest situation also showed that they are not able to engage our partners to fulfill the obligations defined by the signed agreements. The government focused on the thesis of opening a utopian “peace era” and simply ignored many security issues.
Relations with Iran
The weakest area for Armenia is Syunik. This is the area Azerbaijan and Turkey openly express their wishes for.
Syunik is also important for Iran. During these two years, we should have conducted at least 2 military drills with Iran in Syunik, we should have created some contractual basis, which would have been the biggest deterrent for Azerbaijan, because Iran is not a state that could be stopped by threats, if it pursues its national interest.
We should take decisive steps, try to convince Russia, not by withdrawing from the CSTO – that would be another stupidity – because there are agreements within the framework of the structure that are important for the purchase of arms. We need to upgrade our security system with new components. I am convinced that it is possible to explain this to the Russian side, perhaps to form a new trilateral format, because today Russia is warming its relations with Iran. I am sure that this can be explained to the US as well. Will they like it? No. But do they offer an alternative, no, they do not.
It is necessary to be more bold not only inside the country, but also in relations with the outside world. When I propose to involve Iran in our new security architecture, it means that the situation should be evaluated and a solution that will neutralize the problem should be proposed. All components should be considered without ruling anything out if it solves security problem.
As for the possibility of Armenia joining the union state of Russia and Belarus, I do not think that it would be the right step at this moment.
What should be done?
There are simple steps states take in critical situations.
The first is public consolidation, this is a necessary condition, without which nothing will be achieved. Opinions are voiced “to unite to help make a difficult decision.” Consolidation is for driving people to victory, to capitulate we do not need to consolidate.
There is also a thesis of uniting over the government. We are told to “unite over the problem”. What is our goal: to save Armenia or Armenia’s problem?
If we want public consolidation, it should be for high, hard to reach goals that require the will of the people.
I strongly disagree with the idea that capitulation is inevitable. Yes, the situation is complicated, there are many problems, but that does not mean that we should just give up and accept the coercion.
In this context, the change of power is an imperative requirement; in a parliamentary country it can be complete or partial. For example, if the parliament elects another prime minister, it is a partial change of power, because the “control package” remains in that political team. This issue can be a topic of discussion in the political field.
We cannot be healed in the environment that made us sick, we need to change it.
The second point related to consolidation is that we should seriously deal with the army. For two years we have been hearing about reforms, and at the end, the idea of being freed from serving in the army for 24 million drams was born, which is simply destructive for the army.
The third step is to reevaluate our security architecture. We must assess that influence levers of Russia and CSTO have significantly decreased. CSTO has no chance to influence at all. All the countries of the structure are in much better relations with Azerbaijan than with Armenia. To think that CSTO will take a step is geopolitical insanity.
It is obvious that Russia is doing and will do everything possible to avoid a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but these will be political and diplomatic steps. Russia has allied relations with Azerbaijan as well, and to think that it can start military operations against Azerbaijan in this situation is just nonsense. In this regard, a good situation has been created for the development of anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia. The “remote control” of these sentiments is in the hands of Aliyev.
Erdogan gives a “master class”
It is obvious that today neither Russia, nor the United States, nor France have any influence on Turkey and Azerbaijan. No one can influence Erdogan, and he gives a “master class” in pursuing national interests. Ignoring all pressures, he does what he considers right for Turkey’s national interests.