Yerevan/Mediamax/. The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers will meet in Paris on June 18. OSCE Minsk Group French, Russian and US Co-Chairs are widely expected to exert pressure on both sides to de-escalate tensions.

This is the forecast of Oxford Analytica British Research Center, Mediamax reports.

Oxford Analytica says that Azerbaijan is following a new military strategy based on a build-up of procurement and preparations for attaining operational readiness by 2014, threatening to go to war by the 20th anniversary of the ceasefire if there is no progress in the Karabakh peace process.

“Bolstered by a steady build-up in weapons and spending, the Azerbaijani General Staff recently warned it would take just ten days to liberate the occupied territories and reach the Iranian-Armenian border. However, despite such rhetoric, the Azerbaijani armed forces remain unready for a new war, while the Armenian side poses no offensive threat and simply seeks to secure its earlier gains. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan seems unwilling to climb down from its threats, underestimating the potentially destabilizing impact of domestic disappointment with unfulfilled promises and expectations of military victory,” the research says.

Oxford Analytica reminds that Azerbaijan's attacks coincided with a regional tour by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and seriously disrupted its agenda.

According to Oxford Analytica, reflecting recognition of the new scale of risk, there is now a new sense of diplomatic urgency. Yet under the current OSCE mediation format, such urgency will be difficult to sustain, and nearly impossible to succeed. One of the reasons is Russia’s stance, whose interests are better served by either the status quo or an expansion of tension.