Yerevan /Mediamax/. Erdogan is trying to drag Putin into a bilateral dialogue on Karabakh, Kirill Krivosheev writes in his article “How Karabakh will change relations between Russia and Turkey”, published on the website of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“In recent years, everyone has become accustomed to seeing Russia and Turkey on one side of the barricades - opposite from the United States and Europe. In Syria or Libya, Putin and Erdogan may have different interests and local allies, but it is still much easier for them to agree with each other than with the West.

However, it has turned out differently in Karabakh. Russia and the West together call on Azerbaijan to stop the offensive, while Turkey, on the contrary, aggravates the conflict. Ankara directly invites Moscow to sit down and solve everything, “like in Syria,” but the Russian leadership is in no hurry to respond to the Turkish initiative,” Krivosheev writes.

Nevertheless, he notes, “the Kremlin does not want to openly argue with Erdogan after spending so much time and effort to build a partnership with him.”

“Therefore, Russia has so far conceded the role of the main critic of Turkey to France and at the same time is trying not to alienate Azerbaijan in order to prevent the Turks from becoming an equal mediator in the settlement of the conflict,” the article says.

“Erdogan is trying to drag Putin into a bilateral dialogue on Karabakh, the same as on the situation in Libya or in northern Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu openly draws this parallel: “We spoke with Putin, with Lavrov. As we act together in Syria, we tried here too, but failed.” Indeed, Moscow does not like the Turkish plans in this case. Karabakh is not Syria. Russia is used to considering the Transcaucasus a zone of its special interests and the Kremlin negatively perceives any outside interference in the region.

However, Russia would not want to curb Turkey too sharply. A new conflict, like the one that happened with the downed plane in 2015, would be a serious image loss for Moscow and would deal a painful blow to the hard-fought alliance between Putin and Erdogan. Therefore, the Kremlin is ready to show restraint and allow Turkey to let off steam, feel nostalgic for a while about the greatness of the Ottoman Empire.

Someone has to satisfy Baku's request for progress in the negotiations, and it will be better if Moscow does it, not Ankara. Because otherwise Turkey will really show itself as the most productive force in the region, and this will give it grounds to demand a lot - for example, the status of an intermediary with equal rights with Russia. And Karabakh will become a field for their confrontation, which does not bode well,” Krivosheev concludes.