Sergei Melkonian - Mediamax.am

Sergei Melkonian
Sergei Melkonian
Ph.D., Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Russia and Iran in the South Caucasus: Intersection and Clash of Interests Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, there have been regular reports of rapprochement between Russia and Iran, starting with the delivery of drones and culminating in Tehran’s decision to join BRICS (the intergovernmental organization that also comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates). From the Western perspective, the situation seems clear —two antagonists to the liberal international order are uniting. However, this simplifies complex geopolitical processes, particularly in the South Caucasus, which must be studied more thoroughly.
Four Scenarios for the Unblocking of Communications in the South Caucasus One of the pivotal issues on the negotiation agenda between Armenia and Azerbaijan today is the unblocking of communications. This issue, to a significant extent, could serve as a pretext for a subsequent aggression by Azerbaijan against Armenia. Currently, four possible scenarios for the unblocking and operation of communications can be delineated.
Russia's dilemma in Nagorno-Karabakh: you cannot leave you cannot stay Since December 12, 2022, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) remains under blockade. Azerbaijan unilaterally established control over the Lachin corridor, which contradicts the Trilateral Statement of 2020. In less than two years, in May 2025, the future of the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC) in Nagorno-Karabakh will be determined: Yerevan and Baku will either extend the mandate of the contingent or declare that there is no need for its presence and will prepare it for the exit. Russia's loss of its monopoly role as a mediator in the negotiation process and its inability to lift the blockade and regain control over the corridor increase the likelihood of the second scenario.
Russia's New Concept of Foreign Policy. What is important for Armenia to know? The new concept of Russian foreign policy was published on March 31, 2023. It is noticeable that the Russian Foreign Ministry prepared a draft of the updated concept back in early 2022. Perhaps the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine and its consequences made adjustments to the document. To understand the main changes in the new concept, it is important to compare it with the previous version, which was published in 2016. We can highlight the following important changes that are relevant to Armenia.
Russia can approach the EU civilian mission to Armenia in three ways Since the war in Ukraine broke out in February 2022, relations between Russia and the West, including the European Union (EU) bloc, have moved from competition to open confrontation, with both sides perceiving the territory of former Soviet states to be an important locus for this confrontation. Russia considers the South Caucasus part of its security architecture.
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