We present certain parts from the article “Erdogan is now a double-edged weapon” by political scientist, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club Timofei Bordachev.

He has written the article following the discussion in Turkey on the future of Montreux Convention – an international agreement of 1936, which restores Turkey’s control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits and regulates the transit of naval warships through them.

Turkey strives for independence

Ankara’s foreign policy of recent years is the brightest example of how global politics of middle-sized states will be like in the coming years and what concerns it will bring Russia.

Photo: REUTERS

Turkey’s geopolitical position, close to both Russia and Europe, combined with modern history make Ankara’s foreign policy so attention-grabbing. Turkey is a NATO member, and it has stood in the EU’s hall for 40 years, so now it strives for independence. Turkey is conflicting with Paris and blackmailing Berlin with refugees, buying arms from Moscow and making many pretty speeches in the category of a world power.

Turkey fears a one-on-one with Russia

At the same time, Turkey fears staying one-on-one with Russia. Turkish policy might be convenient for Russia today, but tomorrow, it might be unpleasant to the point when Turkey cannot buy its way back into Russia’s good graces. Erdogan has already dragged Ankara into Moscow’s power orbit when he made himself an important player in the South Caucasus and Syria. It is dangerous to move further, and Ankara needs to keep backdoors for going back under the USA’s protection.

Photo: REUTERS

Not fully and not unequivocally, but with special conditions and an opportunity to return to independence, particularly because contrary to the USSR, modern Russia does not have the grounds to pose a fundamental threat to existence of Turkish statehood.

New concerns for Russia

Ankara’s foreign policy activism cannot seriously concern Moscow: Turkey does not have military, demographic or economic resources to become a problem for nuclear world powers in the matters that concern their vital interests. Turkey’s military capacity is pathetic compared to that of Russia, China, or the USA; its economy gets through regular shocks. Azerbaijan and the states in Central Asia, where we love discussing Turkish influence, hardly aim to become Ankara’s “little brother” – Turkey is too moody and rough as a partner. Nothing can be done about it; complicated historical experience of the last century, the inferiority complex caused by “undervaluation” by the West, and the national identity all play a role. That is why foreign policy cannot work on mathematical models: values and emotions play a role in it.

Photo: REUTERS

The more Ankara inconveniences and humbles the EU and the U.S., the better for Russia and everybody else. Modern Turkey strives to break free from the full dependence on the West, created in the 20th century, and we can say it is convenient. However, what Turkish government does will create new concerns for Russia in the broader context of change of the world order.

The double-edged weapon

For Russia, Turkey’s policy is a double-edged weapon that can bring profit and many problems alike. The emerging world order, which is based on an unstable balance of powers and not on the rules or will of world powers, we will deal with such partners more and more often. It is no longer possible to make Turkey serve the interests of just one master.