Yerevan /Mediamax/. Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service announced today that “the likelihood of a large-scale military attack by Azerbaijan against Armenia is not assessed as high at this moment.”

In its annual report on Armenia’s external risks, the FIS stated: “At the same time, in the absence of treaty-based peace and interstate relations, and based on Azerbaijani policy of threatening the use of force against Armenia, the risk of local tensions and border escalation still remains.”

“A guarantee for some reduction of tension may be the smooth continuation of the demarcation and delimitation process that began in 2024, in accordance with the mutually agreed procedure.

The delays in the peace process and normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan significantly increase uncertainty about Azerbaijan’s true intentions regarding establishment of a lasting peace.

In general, the absence of treaty-based peace and diplomatic relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan creates a real risk of maintaining tense interstate relations, which could be further exacerbated by shifts in alliances or transformations of historical allied partnerships in the region.

Within this framework, Azerbaijan will continue working on transitioning to more mobile units, preparing reserves, acquiring and importing new weapons, as well as upgrading military infrastructure,” the service’s report reads.