The other side of Iran agreement -

The other side of Iran agreement

The other side of Iran agreement

The agreement signed between Iran and the group of six world powers on July 14 cannot be underestimated. It is the first serious step that can lead to a regulation in the relations of Iran and the key international players and most importantly, rule out or at least put off the military confrontation between Iran and the U.S. in the mid-term.

However, this is the part that refers to the international aspect of the agreement, while the aspect which is more local and refers directly to us – the regional aspect – can have absolutely different implications.

We should remember and realize that although Iran aims to reach a certain level of influence on the international scene, it is a regional player the main benefits and issues of which are centered in exactly the Middle East. And the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 does not provide any solution or progress in this regard. Moreover, it will result in escalation and there are several reasons for it.

1. The Middle East, including major players Saudi Arabia and Israel are against the agreement. After the signing of the agreement, Saudis and Israelis will “localize” their struggle against Tehran – until recently the Saudi and pro-Israel lobbies in Washington or Brussels were succeeding in the adoption of packages of sanctions against Iran, while now the struggle against Tehran’s positions will move to the Middle East.

One of the possible outcomes of this deal might be Saudi Arabia’s increased support for anti-Assad groups in Syria and anti-Shia groups in Iraq. This will lead the two countries to a more severe civil war.

2. During the last months of talks, Iran has largely limited its military involvement in Iraq and Syria and refused to get involved in Yemen. Iran assessed Saudi Arabia’s bombing of positions in Yemen in cold heart saying it was a provocation, which pursued to involve Iran in the conflict, which would result in the failure of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program; one thing the regional Arab states were interested in. It’s when it should be stressed that after the signing of the agreement Tehran’s modus operandi in Syria, Iraq and Yemen will drastically change – Iran will be free and ready for a counterattack, which will bilaterally destabilize the situation.

The regional aspect of the deal reached on Iran’s nuclear program will be way more important for Armenia and the Armenian communities in the Middle East than the international aspect where everything is clear – peace, talks and business.

Sevak Sarukhanyan is a Candidate in Political Sciences.

These views are his own.


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