Recently, there have been many talks on the new opportunities that Iran-West dialog can give to Armenia. It is particularly noted that the elimination of sanctions against Iran will create a new situation both in the region and in the world and Armenia may benefit from it.

Nevertheless, as always, the reality is slightly different.

To have a clear idea of what sanctions we are talking about it should be highlighted that the best result following Iran-Group of Six negotiations is Iran’s rejoining the foreign trade regime, which used to function until 2010, that is, before the international sanctions were imposed. More generally, after the elimination of the sanctions, Armenian-Iranian opportunities of economic cooperation will return to the level registered in 2010.

The volumes of transit of goods reaching Armenia through the Iranian territory will be restored, the financial transactions between Armenian and Iranian banks will be facilitated and most likely, the prices for mutton will rise in Armenia as Iran will again be able to afford buying it. In fact, the situation before 2010 will be re-established and thus, the detriments caused by the sanctions will end. However, there will be no miracles or breakups in Armenian-Iranian relations, especially if we take into account that the economic cooperation between Iran and Armenia is already overloaded.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the above mentioned refers to the coming years as well as to the “package” which is currently placed on Iran-Group of Six negotiation table. And if we suppose the negotiations will progress by far, and say, three years down the road, Iran and the West will set a brand new level of relations, then such a prospect will truly open up new possibilities, which cannot be exactly foreseen for Armenia.

I suppose the developments will be linked to the entry of Iranian gas to the European market. After the political issues are settled, roughly 100bln CBM Iranian gas may be supplied to the EU establishing a new ground for the Iran-Europe energy alliance.

Is it beneficial for Armenia?

Both, yes and no. It’s beneficial as the significance of Azerbaijani gas will decrease for the EU, which will make Europe review its Caucasus policy. And it’s not beneficial, as the Iranian gas, no matter how much Yerevan expresses its goodwill, will go to Europe through Turkey and not through Armenia, Georgia or Ukraine and it can greatly increase the role of Turkey in the international energy system as well as international relations.

The same is true in the oil sector. The re-entry of Iranian oil into the international market can result in the fall of oil prices and eventually, prevent Azerbaijan’s increasing profits. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices will change the macro-economic state of Russia for the worse, while hundreds of thousands of Armenians work there and with their money transfers play a huge role in the stability of Armenia’s macro-economy.

What I mean is that expecting to benefit from the game of a second party is something ungrateful, contradicting and in some sense, negative, as those expectations shift the responsibility for our own fortune to the processes which have nothing to do with us directly.

Sevak Sarukhanyan is a Candidate of Political Sciences. These views are his own.