Vardan Oskanyan and “Prosperous Armenia” party are on the eve of big changes. Former Armenian Foreign Minister should become a member of a party, whose main (if not the only) value and ideology is its leader with his enormous financial possibilities. As for “Prosperous Armenia”, it must enroll a person who radically differs from people of party leader’s closest entourage.

It will be extremely interesting to follow how this integration will pass. I think if Vardan Oskanyan and Gagik Tsarukyan had a choice they would do everything possible to avoid this “merger”, as it is somewhat artificial because of the huge difference in views of these two men.

However, the two don’t seem to have such a big choice.

Gagik Tsarukyan realizes that “Prosperous Armenia”, the way it is today, doesn’t have a big future and the only guarantee of its existence is the financial means and the influence of the leader. It was most clearly manifested in the decision of the European People’s Party which inducted RPA, “Orinats Yerkir” and “Heritage” parties into its ranks, but actually rejected “Prosperous Armenia”.

Last December, our columnist Michael Kambeck explained it this way:

““Prosperous Armenia” was rejected mainly because the EPP does not believe that it is a real party, but more a platform for party chairman Tsarukyan. Given their known criteria, this reaction should have been expected. If Prosperous Armenia wanted to join, why didn’t they prepare a party conference with a “European focus”, demonstrating their inner democracy,  their European agenda, demonstrating that the party would continue to exist even if the chairman would one day leave.”

It’s also clear that changes in ”Prosperous Armenia” won’t be limited by the enrollment of Vardan Oskanyan only. It’s obvious that new people should come to the party, otherwise the ex-minister will be like a “square peg in a round hole”, which will hardly help change the image of PPA. The entrance of new people might cause problems for those who have struggled to become the closest persons to Gagik Tsarukyan during recent years.

People say today that the initiator of the upcoming membership of Vardan Oskanyan in “Prosperous Armenia” is the second President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan. If it is indeed so, it may be assumed that Kocharyan gives a second chance to Oskanyan. A few people remember today that in summer 2006, Vardan Oskanyan presented a program for the development of rural regions, mainly border communities. In fact, the Foreign Minister was the curator of the program. Opinions abandoned then that this way Kocharyan was trying to “test” Oskanyan’s ability to act independently. Judging by the fact that the program remained on paper, one can say that the first attempt came out lumpy.

Oskanyan did nothing extraordinary in last 4 years. During that period he has harshly criticized the authorities several times and his “Civilitas” Foundation failed to become a powerful institution it could be given Oskanyan’s potential, his rich experience gained during 10 years of work on the post of Foreign Minister, and his international ties.

Can Vardan Oskanyan indeed try himself in “Prosperous Armenia” Party as a man who is acceptable and predictable for the outside world? Is Gagik Tsarukyan ready to renounce some of his powers? There are a number of such questions. People don’t change in mature age and it’s naïve to think that by becoming political allies Vardan Oskanyan and Gagik Tsarukyan will give up their values, habits and work methods. Nevertheless, one of them should definitely make major concessions at the expense of their own self-esteem.

Ara Tadevosyan is the Director of Mediamax.