Mediamax talked to Stefan Meister, the head of the Program for International Order and Democracy at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Huge changes in the world, in the international politics and in the EU took place after our last interview conducted in March 2023. Can you still say that “Germany is now more interested in supporting the EU activities in the South Caucasus”?  

The South Caucasus is even less a priority for German and EU politics now, since the focus is on defence, transatlantic relations and Ukraine. I would not say, there is no interest, but neither Germany or the EU will engage too much with the conflicts and issues in the South Caucasus, as you can also see in Georgia, where we get a full fledged authoritarian state and the EU is running an isolation policy.

What stays of interest, is connectivity via the South Caucasus to Central Asia and Asia, there will be more investment. But I do not see too much political engagement, beyond what the EU is doing at the moment with Armenia.

On February 17, 2024, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a tripartite meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Despite such high-level engagements, progress remains stalled, with Azerbaijan continuing to impose unilateral demands on Armenia. In your 2023 interview with Mediamax, you stated that “the EU needs to shift from a facilitator to a negotiator” in this context. How do you evaluate the EU’s steps?

There is no appetite by key actors from the EU like Costas or Kallas to be too much engaged in this conflict resolution process. The lesson learned from Charles Michel’s engagement was, do not burn your hands in this conflict, you can only lose. So I do not see the actor or the institutional appetite by the EU to become really a facilitator or even a negotiator here.

Photo: REUTERS

Do you think that Charles Michel failed in his attempts to make the EU the “main mediator” between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Not sure, if he wanted to make the EU the main mediator, he wanted to facilitate without having many resources or political power or even have the support by several big member states. Yes, he failed with his initiative and for others its now something to not do again.

Germany’s conservative election winner, Friedrich Merz, takes firm steps towards forming a government that he says will rebuild Berlin’s standing in Europe. Do you think that the potential new counselor’s shift will affect the EU’s policy in the South Caucasus, or will it, in contrast, distance its attention from the region, given the EU's decision to increase its support to Ukraine amid the sweeping policy changes in Trump’s America?

I just do not think, that he will have a special interest in the South Caucasus, his focus is on European defence, Ukraine and the US and the South Caucasus looks rather far from Berlin. So we will see the same level of institutional engagement, but no political priority.

Photo: REUTERS

Recently, the EU Council adopted a decision to extend the mandate of the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) for an additional two years, until 19 February 2027, while increasing its personnel to around 200. How do you evaluate the mission's role since its deployment in 2022? Do you agree that it was able to somehow “deter” Azerbaijan?

I think it was an important step by the EU, to bring more transparency on what happens on the border between both states and it definitely deterred Baku to provoke and initiate “accidents” and attacks. It has a stabilizing role and brings the EU interest into Armenia and the situation on the ground. If that would be not the case, Baku would not so aggressively argue against the mission, they see it as a provocation and it shrinks their room for maneuver and provocations.

Armenian parliament is currently considering a draft law on holding a referendum about the possible accession to the EU. Given the current situation in the world and in Europe, is anybody in EU interested to discuss Armenian “ambitions”.

I do not think, that this initiative is about EU integration but its rather the interest of premier Pashinyan and the ruling party to prepare for the parliamentary election next year to dominate the pro European discourse and offer some kind of alternative approach to Russia and the current deadlock. In the EU institutions where first surprised but they also understand, that this is not so serious and it will take anyway very long. This is also not the way, how you integrate into the EU, its rather rhetoric. You need to get an invitation and then you need to make reforms, which are very comprehensive and long term.

Turkish President and FM made some statements recently about the EU’s need to engage more with Turkey. Do you think it can have some real effect on the policy makers in the Brussels and the EU member-states capitals?

Photo: REUTERS

Yes, there is a big discussion about the need to rethink Turkey policy and the relations with Ankara in the EU and the member states. Because of the geopolitical changes in the neighborhood, the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Black Sea, Syria and now a possible withdrawn of the US from Europe and maybe also from NATO, Europe needs Turkey. It has after the US the second biggest NATO army and it’s a partner in this framework. At the same time, because of its economic crisis Turkey needs Europe, so I think there will be a rapprochement and more cooperation in the future.

Mariam Galstyan and Ara Tadevosyan talked to Stefan Meister