Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey plan to complete Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project in 2015.

The construction works were launched in 2007. Within the framework of the project the construction of a railway stretching from Akhalkalaki (Georgia) to Kars (Turkey) is underway. The reconstruction of Akhalkalaki-Tblisi railway is also planned. Azerbaijan and Turkey evenly share the funding – Azerbaijan does it through granting a loan to Georgia.

In an interview with Mediamax, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the National Academy of Sciences, historian Vahram Ter-Matevosyan introduced the regional significance of the railroad and the results of the study carried out in Georgia with regard to Armenia’s opportunities to join it.

-2015 is announced the jumpstart of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. Is it realistic the parties will manage to fit in that time limit?

-The jumpstart for the construction works was given quickly, however, the deadline of the project was delayed for several times, which means there are certain bottlenecks. Judging by discussions and information leakages those reasons refer to the juxtaposing of technical issues and political interests.

The project primarily aims to ensure alternative transportation between the East and the West as well as to reduce Russia’s role in this matter. But a closer study of the project shows that each of the involved countries – Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia – pursues its own interests.

The operation of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway bears geopolitical significance for Turkey. It will emphasize Turkey’s regional role more and will reinforce grounds for Turkey to become an energy hub. Georgia’s advantages to become a transit country in the region will become more tangible. As to Azerbaijan, this railway will serve as an additional transportation route to Turkey and Europe.

These varying vested interests spark conflict of interests between the parties and Armenia should seek and voice its say in it.

- Yerevan was previously against the railway construction. Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is gradually turning to a reality. What can Armenia do? After all, does it imply isolation for Armenia or does it grant a new opportunity to us?

-Yes, Armenia was initially against the project and suggested operating the existing Kars-Gyumri railway. The U.S. and Europe lent an ear to Armenia’s calls and refrained from supporting the construction of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. Back then Armenia was viewing the project as an initiative once again emphasizing Armenia’s isolation. This raises a question – after so much critique how can Armenia join the operation of the railway?

However, things were different then – Armenia was not perceiving this project as an opportunity for economic development and overcoming the blockade. Moreover, two major projects aimed at the export of Caspian energy carriers had just started to function in full scale and the railway appeared as a possible prospect inevitably strengthening the isolation.

But real policy suggests another thing today. It’s a challenge in which Armenia should seek opportunities. I doubt Armenia’s isolation has been viewed as a primary objective in this project. First of all, the project aims to strengthen economic ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, increase the volume of trade turnover and passenger transportation, and to serve as an additional export opportunity of Central Asian and Caspian oil and gas to European markets. The objective, means and aftereffect should be determined. It’s time that Armenia decided whether the project is isolation or opportunity for it.

It is clear that Armenia has been downbeat on the railway but times have changed and Armenia’s approaches should also be reviewed. Armenia should demonstrate flexibility. It is highly important for Armenian economy to be part of this railway communication.

- Obviously, today as in the past Turkey and Azerbaijan will not welcome Armenia’s participation in this project. What moods dominate Georgia?

- I was carrying out studies in May in Georgia and during the meetings I addressed this question to the expert circles and some officials. Almost everyone was unanimous on that Georgia is a sovereign country and defines its transit policy on its own, and so, neither Turkey, nor Azerbaijan can impose pressures on Georgia for the latter not to allow Armenia to join the railway. I would be very happy if this were expressed in real policy. However, the policy Azerbaijan and Turkey conduct in Georgia suggest another thing. In reality, Georgia depends on Turkish-Azerbaijani business projects and investments, to a certain extent. Will Turkey and Azerbaijan be able to force Georgia to reject Armenia’s participation? Georgia claims such a thing will never happen, but I am inclined to think there is yet much to be done in this regard.

On the other hand, however, the commitments Turkey has assumed by international conventions oblige it not to raise obstacles on Armenia’s way to transport goods. Georgia should have vested interest in Armenia’s participation in this project. First of all, Tbilisi will shun problems with Yerevan, and will strengthen its influence in Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti. In addition, Armenia’s participation will allow Georgia to charge transit money for railway operation. Georgia realizes that it is in its own interests to have good relations with Armenia and Armenia’s additional isolation is refutable. Georgia’s position on Armenia’s participation in the railway will serve as a “key” factor.

- Let’s assume Armenia officially voices its willingness to join the project and it gets positive response by the participating states. How will Armenia join the operation of the railway?

- The distance between Gyumri and Akhalkalaki is 90km, and the distance from Bavra checkpoint to Akhalkalaki transit terminal is 30km. The construction of a railway from Gyumri to Akhalkalaki is complicated, yet it’s not impossible. A number of issues should be resolved, including the upgrading of the system of our railway lines. However, we will have tangible results if Armenia joins the railway. Considering North-South Road Corridor Investment Program, which will ensure a quality road from Meghri to Bavra, the advantages of joining the railway get more overt.

We should take into account that if Armenia joins the railway, then it will double the country’s economic opportunities and the transportation of Armenian goods to Europe will be carried out within a shorter period of time. We can load the trains at Akhalkalaki terminal. It takes the train 40 hours at most to reach Istanbul from Kars. If the underground canal of the Bosporus is also constructed, then Armenian goods will reach Europe within two-three days. New opportunities will be created for the development of the north of Armenia, especially of Shirak region.

- Obviously, precisely this fact concerns Azerbaijan – the main author and sponsor of the project.

- Beyond doubt, it is so. Let’s not forget that Baku has granted Tbilisi low rate loans for the construction of the part of the railway that stretches from Akhalkalaki to Georgian-Turkish border. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan, and especially Georgia and Turkey should admit that along with its political component the project also pursues economic interests and Armenia’s isolation should not be its real objective. And it’s where Georgia’s stance will be pivotal. These are issues that should be negotiated over by official, diplomatic and specialized channels and I am convinced that Armenia also has significant levers and potential to register a tangible result. Of course, there will be some complications, overt and covert resistance, acceptable and disputable anti-arguments, technical accounts and reasons, but Armenia should not back down against such obstacles.

Yekaterina Poghosyan talked to Vahram Ter-Matevosyan