Yerevan /Mediamax/. Head of the “I Have Honor” faction of Armenia’s National Assembly and member of the Executive Body of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Hayk Mamijanyan commented on the memoirs of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel about Armenia’s negotiations with the European Union on the Association Agreement.

In her memoirs, the former German Chancellor, in particular, writes that Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan, who had declared an interest in principle to sign the Association Agreement with the EU, “performed a U-turn after meeting with Vladimir Putin in September 2013.”

Foreign Policy | 2024-12-05 17:12:45

Merkel’s memoirs: In 2013, the Armenian president “had no room for maneuver”

In a commentary for Mediamax, Hayk Mamijanyan wrote:

“Much has been said about the process of Armenia’s becoming a member of the Customs Union, and later the Eurasian Economic Union, in 2013. Some have described this as a so-called “U-turn” or a sharp shift. The primary reason for this is that the people making this claim, naturally, I am not talking about commissioned propaganda materials, do not fully understand the philosophy behind the Eastern Partnership - at least as it was initially presented to the Republic of Armenia. The Eastern Partnership was not based on an “either-or” logic. From the very beginning of the negotiations, Armenia presented to its European partners the country’s economic interest in the Customs Union’s single market. Both the EU and the Customs Union partners were aware of the parallel negotiations. At some point, however, our EU partners informed us of a change in their position. For the first time, the incomparability of the two negotiation processes was raised, shifting the negotiations from “both-and” to a one-sided “either-or.” Armenia immediately responded, saying that there had never been and could not be any talk of an either-or logic. Taking the initiative, the Armenian side proposed signing only the first part of the Association Agreement - the political part - which addressed the new concerns raised by our EU partners about the incomparability of the two single economic markets. The European side rejected this proposal, deeming it impossible. However, I should note, that less than a month after those negotiations, an Association Agreement was signed with Ukraine, without an economic part, based on that very logic.

On the other hand, on September 3, 2013, Armenia’s third President, Serzh Sargsyan, announced the Republic of Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union. Later, Armenia became a full member of the Customs Union. This was the result of negotiations initiated by Armenia. The correctness of this decision is evidenced by the country’s economic indicators in recent years, which today’s rulers attribute to them. It is also noteworthy that the correctness of that decision is proven not only by today’s statistical data, but also by research and forecasts conducted by the EU at the time. According to those studies, signing the Association Agreement with the EU would have resulted in approximately 1% economic growth in the short term, and 1.5% in the medium term. Similar conclusions were drawn from studies conducted by the Armenian government. For comparison, even a $‌10 fluctuation in gas prices would have had a more significant impact on Armenia’s economic indicators.

To avoid overwhelming the reader with economic and statistical details, I will mention only one number: the products of approximately 300,000 farms in the Republic of Armenia were exported to the Russian Federation. Therefore, there can be no talk of any turns. In one of the two parallel negotiations held, our partners changed the logic of the entire negotiation midway through, and Armenia simply expressed its position on both negotiation platforms.

Both the initial “both-and” logic and the “either-or” logic - introduced by our European partners midway through the negotiations - were presented to the Republic of Armenia by negotiators delegated on behalf of the EU: retired German Chancellor Angela Merkel was not among them. In fact, discussions on this issue with EU member state leaders were limited to meetings during summits.

With the utmost respect, I dare to rephrase the retired Chancellor’s assertion: “The President of the Republic of Armenia not only had no room for maneuver in 2013 and the period preceding it, but he never sought to maneuver.” The position of the Republic of Armenia was clear, unambiguous and, in a good sense, predictable for all its partners and allies.”