Yerevan/Mediamax/. Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute has created an COVID-19 forecasting model which predicts the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on countries based on data collected from various sources.
“We want to emphasize that real outcomes depend on human actions. The mitigation strength is our choice. Even given some mitigation level, the outcome is still uncertain,” said the institute.
According to the epidemiological model, at the moment Armenia might have 3,619 active infections, i.e. the number of people currently infected with COVID-19 (including those have not yet shown symptoms or are not yet infectious).
The forecasting model shows that at the peak of the pandemic, Armenia might have 43,000 to 140,000 cases, which makes 1.5%-4.7% percent of the population.
The model also estimates that by 2021 the number of infected people in Armenia could be between 1.3 million and 2.3 million, i.e. 44%-80% of the population.
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